Kehinde Fajobi
On thirty first January 2025, Nigerians anticipated a big replace from the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics (NBS): the discharge of the newly rebased Gross Home Product (GDP) and Shopper Worth Index (CPI) figures.
Nevertheless, practically two weeks later, these essential {economic} indicators stay unpublished, elevating considerations amongst policymakers, analysts, and the enterprise neighborhood.
The NBS, in an announcement relationship again to October 2024, had assured the general public that the rebasing train was essential to replicate “present {economic} realities and account for structural adjustments within the financial system.”
It emphasised that Nigeria’s final GDP rebasing was completed in 2010—14 years in the past—and {that a} extra correct image of the financial system was lengthy overdue. Equally, the CPI, which tracks inflation traits, was final rebased in 2009.
The absence of up to date information now threatens to disrupt financial policymaking and raises questions concerning the causes behind the delay.
A Dedication Unfulfilled
At a sensitisation workshop held in Lagos on ninth January, the NBS reiterated that the rebased GDP figures can be launched by the tip of the month.
Moses Waniko, a technical assistant to the Statistician Basic, said, “We’re presently concluding the rebasing. We have to validate the outcomes, after which now we have to do a launch; we’re wanting on the finish of January to try this launch, to disseminate the numbers.”
His remarks left little room for doubt. There was a transparent timeline, and the expectations had been set. The rebasing course of, he defined, would impression key {economic} indicators, doubtlessly growing the dimensions of the GDP and affecting the tax-to-GDP ratio, debt-to-GDP ratio, and per capita earnings. Such a complete replace was anticipated to information {economic} planning and policymaking within the months forward.
But, regardless of this agency dedication, January ended with out the promised information. By early February, the absence of any rationalization from the NBS was already drawing consideration.
{Economic} Fallout from the Delay
The absence of up to date {economic} information is already having penalties. In accordance with a Nairametrics report, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has postponed its first Financial Coverage Committee (MPC) assembly for 2025 as a result of unavailability of the rebased inflation information.
The assembly was initially scheduled for January 27–28, then moved to February 17–18, and is now probably delayed till March.
Nairametrics, citing sources inside the apex {bank}, reported that policymakers had been reluctant to proceed with out the rebased CPI figures, which had been anticipated to offer a extra correct measure of inflation traits.
“The rebasing of Nigeria’s CPI is anticipated to offer a extra correct reflection of inflation traits,” the report said. With out this information, key selections on rates of interest and financial coverage may very well be primarily based on outdated data, growing {economic} uncertainty.
The rebased GDP was additionally anticipated to affect fiscal planning, debt-to-GDP ratios, and Nigeria’s general {economic} outlook.
On condition that the final GDP rebasing in 2014 considerably elevated Nigeria’s reported {economic} dimension, the present figures might have main implications for presidency coverage and investor confidence.
What May Be Behind the Delay?
The silence from the NBS has left room for hypothesis. One potential rationalization is that the validation course of is taking longer than anticipated.
Waniko had beforehand talked about that the rebased information would bear rigorous validation earlier than its launch. If technical challenges have arisen on this course of, it might clarify the holdup.
One other risk is that the rebasing train has revealed surprising shifts in Nigeria’s {economic} construction, requiring extra scrutiny.
On condition that the final GDP rebasing in 2014 resulted in Nigeria’s financial system being declared the biggest in Africa—surpassing South Africa’s on the time—officers could also be exercising warning in guaranteeing that the brand new figures are correct and defensible.
Nevertheless, some analysts have additionally raised considerations about potential political concerns. {Economic} information can have profound implications on authorities coverage, investor confidence, and public notion.
If the rebased figures point out a much less beneficial {economic} outlook than anticipated, there could also be hesitations about their quick launch. Whereas the NBS has beforehand assured that its work is unbiased and free from political affect, the present delay might elevate doubts.
A Sample of Postponements
This isn’t the primary time a key {economic} replace has been delayed beneath the present administration. The CBN, for example, had postponed its MPC conferences previously, with its first assembly beneath Governor Olayemi Cardoso additionally going through delays as traders awaited his technique to handle surging inflation.
The dearth of well timed {economic} information dangers additional unsettling an already unstable financial system. Traders depend on up to date figures to make knowledgeable selections, and delays can result in uncertainty within the markets.
The rebased GDP figures, specifically, had been anticipated to supply a clearer image of Nigeria’s {economic} trajectory, influencing authorities coverage and personal sector methods.
The Want for Transparency
Whereas delays in information launch can typically be justified by the necessity for accuracy, the absence of any communication from the NBS is trigger for concern. A transparent replace—whether or not to substantiate the anticipated launch date or clarify the explanations for the delay—would go a good distance in sustaining public belief.
The rebasing of {economic} indicators will not be merely a statistical train. It has direct implications for fiscal planning, funding selections, and the nation’s general {economic} outlook.
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As Nigeria navigates a difficult {economic} local weather marked by inflationary pressures and foreign money instability, well timed and dependable information is extra essential than ever.
With the CBN’s subsequent MPC assembly now tentatively set for March, the urgency for the NBS to launch the rebased figures can’t be overstated. Whether or not technical, political, or procedural points are behind the delay, Nigerians deserve an evidence.
Till then, the nation’s policymakers and enterprise leaders stay at midnight, awaiting crucial information that ought to have been revealed weeks in the past.
