On the 2nd of April, 2025, President of the US, Donald Trump, introduced the “Common Baseline Tariff” a sweeping new commerce coverage that slaps a ten per cent levy on all imported items.
The transfer targets international locations with what the U.S. calls “unfair commerce practices” and contains further reciprocal tariffs for these nations.
Nigeria’s crude oil and energy-related items are exempted.
However the nation’s non-oil exports value over N323.96bn in 2024 are actually within the hazard zone.
Figures from the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics present Nigeria earned round N4.49tn from exporting petroleum oils and gases to the U.S. final yr. These merchandise stay untouched.
However every little thing else? Not so fortunate.
Nigeria’s push to diversify exports has seen regular development in non-oil commerce. In Q1 2024 alone, these exports hit N74.79bn.
Key merchandise included:
• Flours and meals of soya beans: N28.21bn
• Urea: N20.33bn
• Refined lead: N14.40bn
• Cashew nuts in shell: N11.09bn
• Pure rubber: N769m
In Q2, non-oil exports jumped to N123.23bn. Urea alone contributed N86.54bn, displaying Nigeria’s rising energy in fertiliser provide.
By Q3, exports fell barely to N84.38bn. Urea held robust at N39.20bn, however cocoa beans entered the checklist with N14.48bn in earnings.
This autumn noticed the steepest dip: N42.55bn in whole exports. But cocoa beans led the quarter with N29.92bn, adopted by aluminium and rubber merchandise.
Cumulatively, Nigeria shipped N323.96bn value of non-oil items to the U.S. in 2024.
Now, these items face a 14 per cent tariff.
Urea tops the checklist of weak exports, with N146.06bn in commerce worth. Cocoa beans adopted with N44.40bn.
Refined lead introduced in N55.23bn. Soya meals added N44.43bn. Pure rubber got here in at N14.5bn.
All of them now danger dropping floor within the U.S. market as a result of pricing stress.
Trump says the tariff is important to “convey again American manufacturing and curb the nation’s dependence on international items.”
However for Nigeria, the fallout is actual.
U.S. importers might pivot to different suppliers. Nigerian companies might lose entry to a key market. Years of efforts to advertise export diversification might stall.
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Backing Trump’s transfer, the US Commerce Consultant (USTR) accused Nigeria of proscribing entry to its personal market.
“Nigeria’s import ban on 25 totally different product classes impacts U.S. exporters, notably in agriculture, prescribed drugs, drinks, and client items,” the company posted on X.
The ban, in place since 2016, covers beef, pork, poultry, fruit juices, medicaments, alcoholic drinks, and extra.
In response, Nigeria’s Minister of Industry, Trade, and Investment, Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, admitted the tariff would damage non-oil exporters.
She defined that over 90 per cent of Nigeria’s U.S. exports are petroleum-based. Fertilisers, lead, and agricultural items make up the remaining sectors now in danger.
“A brand new 10 per cent tariff on key classes might impression the competitiveness of Nigerian items within the U.S.,” she warned.
Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, downplayed the impact. He mentioned oil and mineral exports making up N5.08tn of the whole N5.52tn in 2024 are exempted.
He additionally identified that Nigeria’s 14 per cent tariff was far decrease than Vietnam’s 46 per cent or China’s 34 per cent.
However the authorities is watching carefully. “We’re going again to the drafting board to have a look at our funds once more,” Edun mentioned.
Economists warn of larger points. The tariff might elevate client costs, sluggish manufacturing, and weaken world commerce demand together with for Nigerian oil.
Within the final decade, Nigeria-U.S. commerce hit N31.1tn. Exports stood at N16.4tn, imports at N14.71tn leaving Nigeria with a modest surplus.
Nonetheless, that stability might shift beneath Trump’s coverage.
Ecobank’s CEO, Jeremy Awori, has urged African international locations to strengthen intra-African commerce. In keeping with him, counting on one main buying and selling associate places economies in danger.
And now, Nigeria faces that actuality head-on.
